campaign blog


What explains the results?  Was it a fair election? 2018 10 27:

Rundown of mayoral candidates for the 35,000 Chinese voters in Ottawa:

I’m number 8. Some want to limit the number of “crazy” candidates.

The Chinese Canadian Collective survey was ignored by most candidates. Not me!

Clive looked disappointed when CBC declared a wasteful Watson victory shortly after the polls closed.

But it was never a fair fight against developer money, corruption and the power of incumbency.

Clive sums up the predictable result:


The electoral deck is stacked against anyone whose first language isn’t English. Especially on the CBC elevator.
Cultural communities vote less frequently. Voter turnout increases when they have a champion on the ballot. So good on Hamid and Ahmed for running.

Hamid hails from Afghanada, Ahmed grew up in Algeria.

I was surprised that Ahmed got more votes than Hamid.

Hamid had a LOT of signs and support from many people.

Mary Pitt + Ben Franklin + Ron Benn + the Chiarelli family = no thank you.

Foreign-sounding names are rejected outright by many partisan Doug Ford/Lisa MacLeod voters so Hamid and Ahmed were doomed to finish back in the pack.

Mystery candidate James T. Sheahan signed up and disappeared but still got more votes than Michael, Moises and Ryan!

Joey and Bruce both put a lot of effort into their campaigns and were credible choices for mayor. But did they ever REALLY think they had a chance to defeat the Watson leviathan?

Bells Corners votes for mayor:


In College ward Emilie Coyle ran a great campaign against sleazy Rick.


Emilie and Ryan split the anti-Chiarelli vote. No wonder Rick voted against ranked-choice voting.

So close! But Rick’s million-dollar taxpayer-funded slush fund buys a lot of friends.

Illegal campaigning with staff sure pays off.

Shame on Rick and Jenny “Lynnton” for lying.



Darryl and other Chiarelli family members dip their beaks at taxpayer expense.

NO transparency or accountability (or integrity) on how Rick spends these tax dollars.

Emilie won Westcliffe while Rick won Lynwood. In Westcliffe, Emilie had 46 percent, Rick had 39 percent and Ryan 14 percent. In Lynwood, Rick had 42 percent, Emilie had 37 percent and Ryan 20 percent.

Overall the results are very similar to the last provincial election where the conservatives won a fake majority with 40 percent while the 2 progressive parties split the vote.



Who is going to win on Oct. 22? Who deserves it? Predictions as of 2018 10 20:

Mayor

It’s no secret that BIG money wins elections, so the politicians with the deepest pockets and the wealthiest friends will win, especially if you add in the huge advantages that incumbents have: pork-barreling on the taxpayers’ dime, illegal campaigning with staff, dirty tricks, etc.

If candidates had to reveal who is paying for their signs, ads and robocalls BEFORE the election and not after (bravo to Emilie Coyle, Clive Doucet, Theresa Kavanagh and a few others) the results would be quite different.

Wasteful Watson spent $397,718.03 on his campaign in 2014, nicely matched by $397,718.31 in donations, mostly from developers, consultants and wealthy residents (and non-residents) who profit handsomely from Jim’s tight grip on power and his secret contracts.

Wards

There could be a few surprises, with the biggest upset likely to happen in College. Many think that Ottawa’s most corrupt and longest-serving career politician will go down to an ignominious defeat and will finally have to get a REAL job. Rick, the KFC drive-thru in Bells Corners is hiring.

Jay Tysick is in trouble, so one of Watson’s worst bobbleheads could snowmobile to victory in Osgoode.

Voters in Kanata South are fed up with Allan Hubley’s lacklustre performance, so Steve Anderson could pull off a stunning upset.

But maybe that’s wishful thinking on my part.

Warren Arshinoff has been endorsed by some VERY influential citizens, so residents in Knoxdale-Merivale might get some relief if Watson bobblehead Keith Egli goes down in flames.

Raylene Lang-Dion has a good shot at winning in Alta Vista, Glen Gower is in the driver’s seat in Stittsville and Judi Varga-Toth has a chance to put the cuffs on Eli El-Chantiry.

But even with a few surprises in the wards, Watson and his gang of developer-funded sleazy politicians will still control council, much to the delight of the 1%.

Who is going to win on Oct. 22? Who deserves it? Predictions as of 2018 09 29:

Jim’s runaway train to be derailed? StepsFromTheCanal spills the beans.

The campaign for mayor has been fun but we need a Watson-Doucet showdown.

Bayshore Shirley is NOT impressed with Wasteful Watson’s performance so far.

The mayor skipped the Ecology Ottawa debate and failed the questionnaire.

Clive Doucet is the only candidate with a faint hope of putting Mr. Watson out to pasture.

Some of the ten other guys (plus one gal) running for mayor are running strong campaigns and will take a chunk of the anti-Watson vote.

Hamid has lots of signs in Bells Corners, Bayshore and other parts of the city.

Bruce has votes in Vanier and could finish third.

If there had been ranked-choice voting in 2006 he might have been elected councillor.


Orleans

Ranked-choice voting PLEASE! Even StepsFromTheCanal can’t figure it out.

Kate Porter sheds some light.

Barrhaven

Jan Harder should be ashamed of herself. Wish we had fair elections.
Bay

Clash of the Titans: Theresa and Don are neck-and-neck, with Marc and the others trailing in the dust.

Kavanagh is the best choice for the community.

College

Chiarelli is afraid to show his face in public.

Laughable fake excuses!

Kurt and Erin (husband-and-wife team) arrive at the “all-candidates” debate. Playing politics after horrible crimes!

StepsFromTheCanal raked Rick over the coals. Read the comments! Listen to the residents.


A clear choice. Vote here.

Osgoode

Kim Sheldrick deserves to win but she won’t.
George Darouze will be a one-term wonder: even Jim can’t save his bacon when Jay and his well-oiled, well-financed machine play the dog-whistle.
Capital

Oh. My. God. Shawn Menard is heads above the other candidates.
Rideau-Vanier

Mathieu Fleury, I guess.

At least he doesn’t take money from developers.
Cumberland

Double-Ugh! Unlike the other developer-funded incumbents, Blais escaped sanctions.
Stittsville

Glen!
River

Riley should resign BEFORE the election. Too many ethical lapses. Too much developer money in his pocket.

StepsFromTheCanal probably agrees.
West Carlton

Oh no! Surely Eli El-Chantiry won’t win again after all the scandals?
Knoxdale-Merivale
Meet the candidates.

StepsToTheCanal slaps Keith around a bit but lets Rick’s buddy off easy.

Kate Porter did a great job of covering the community debate.

A freelancer from OttawaStart grills the slick developer-financed politician.

Charlie S. from Barrhaven covered the debate before jetting off to Queen’s Park to help Doug and Lisa.

Thanks to the power of incumbency and his $1M office budget/slush fund Egli will be hard to beat. Warren and James are great candidates who would beat him in a fair fight.
Gloucester-South Nepean

NOT Carol-Anne! Being a “CTV media personality” and hobnobbing with the 1% doesn’t make you a good choice for councillor.
Alta Vista

Can’t see developer-funded bobblehead Cloutier pulling it off with his terrible record. Anybody but him. Shame on Peter Hume. Hooray for Raylene!
Rideau-Goulburn

StepsFromTheCanal won’t get his wish. The natives in Richmond are REALLY pissed at Scott for screwing up the bridge.
Innes

Donna is losing steam so it’s up for grabs.

Wishful thinking!
Kanata North

Maybe the worst councillor next to his buddy Rick.


Four more years unless the boys can pull a rabbit out of the hat. Too bad they’re splitting the anti-Hubley vote.
*******
Who is going to win on Oct. 22? My predictions as of 2018 08 21:
Mayor

Mr. Doucet is running a great campaign but the dishonourable dishonest developer-financed mayor has a leg up on Clive at this point.
Ardeth would rather be baking cookies…

the wards

No arguments with this guy’s choices, but only Deans, Nussbaum, McKenney, Leiper and Menard are shoo-ins.

Barrhaven

Jan Harder lies.
“Jan Harder is the worst choice for everyone but the 1%,” says this disgraced shill for the most corrupt politician in the city.
Osgoode

With the support of Doug Thompson and heavy financing from the people who knee-capped Patrick Brown, Rick Chiarelli’s Trump/Ford-loving consigliere has a cakewalk.
College

Few like Rick, but many fear him or swallow whole his taxpayer-funded BS.

Self-appointed “community leaders” from fake community associations love dipping into Rick’s yummy pork barrel.

With Ryan/Emily splitting the anti-Rick vote we can look forward to four more years of sleaze.
******
My predictions as of 2018 08 11:
Mayor:

Jim Watson is clearly NOT the right man for the job. Too bad we can’t vote for Ardeth.
Clive Doucet will finish second to Watson IF he stays in the race: Doucet: “I am running to win and if I sense after two or three weeks that I’m not going to win, I won’t do it. I don’t think it is fair to ask people to support you with money, time and effort just to be part of the conversation.”

Doucet: “Should we carry on with a developer-first model of growing Ottawa, or should we put our communities first?” Doucet is a WAY better choice than Watson!

Vanier garage owner Bruce McConville called out Watson as a bully and might finish second if Doucet gives up. Watson is massively unpopular in Vanier, and rightly so.
Orleans
17 candidates! Somebody with sax appeal could win with less than 6% of the vote (and 2% of eligible voters). A great argument for ranked-choice voting!
******
My predictions as of 2018 07 26:

Email me or DM me with corrections, info, opinions, etc.

Mayor: As the only “serious” candidate Jim Watson’s chances look pretty good. Maybe 99% certain? Tomorrow is the last day to sign up/drop out and there’s no sign of a “serious” challenger. Rick’s sad Chiarelli-for-mayor hoax was exposed a long time ago.

But what if Jim is forced to remove his name from the ballot?

Only the “non-serious” candidates-for-mayor would remain! So it might be worth a closer look at the “clowns” running for second spot.

I sent my fellow clownish candidates (even the really scary ones) an email in an attempt to find out why they’re running to be the new Jim: Hi guys! May the best man finish second! Currently Hamid looks to be in the lead (his last name starts with “A”) but Moises will get a boost in the polls from his creative signage.

The incumbents routinely ignore the rules so why shouldn’t we?

Not that it matters – we’ll all get our $200 nomination fee refunded by the City if we don’t screw up the financial paperwork. It’ll be a breeze for me since I don’t plan on spending a single cent on my campaign.


Wish we had ranked-choice voting! What’s your position on that?

My ego can handle finishing dead last.


Where’s the drama when everyone KNOWS Jim is going to win?

Just curious guys (where are the gals?), what neighbourhood do you live in and how do you see your local race? At least there’s a bit of drama in some wards.

If nothing else we fringe-candidates will strengthen democracy by whipping up interest in a mostly apathetic electorate.

<
Good luck everyone! Bonne chance! Maybe see you on the campaign trail? Hold your heads up high even if the trolls, bots and ruthless incumbent politicians ridicule you on social media or beat you up: you’re taking a hit for Team Democracy. Let me know if the free bike-taxi can be of service.
Craig


College: Emilie Coyle would be the best choice but, with Ryan Kennery in the race to split the vote, it’ll be hard to bring down the wily Vox Fox from the Frank Underwood school of politics.

Bay: Theresa Kavanagh is the favourite, but she’ll have to fight off a full frontal Liberal attack from Jim Watson, Mark Taylor, Anita Vandenbeld and her hubby Don Draper.

If the bear guy signs up at the last minute with his proton pack he’ll upend the apple cart.
Conservative “moderator” Mark Sutcliffe confiscated the bear guy’s secret weapon. Unfair!

Another close race is likely in Bay ward.

Orléans: 15 candidates! Somebody could win with 7% of the vote (and 3% of eligible voters).

Innes: Laura Dudas is off to a strong start but Donna Leith-Gudbranson will be tough to beat.

She has connections with the old guard and a famous son in the NHL. Money will be no issue. Pierre Pagé breaks with Sue Sherring to shill for François Trépanier but he’ll finish a distant third.

Kanata North: Jenna Sudds has Marianne Wilkinson and Liberal MP Karen McCrimmon on her team, but Matt Muirhead would be a more exciting choice. It doesn’t matter who gets second place though: David Gourlay has the bucks, the mayor, Cyril Leeder and a large baseball bat.

Knoxdale-Merivale: James Dean is a candidate with a cause, but Warren Arshinoff is one of the best in the business and will be soon filling Mary Pitt and Gord Hunter’s shoes, much to Ben Franklin’s delight.

Keith Egli has all the advantages of incumbency, but he was never the mayor’s favourite and only won because of the split vote last time around.

And would YOU want to defend the LRT mess and other bungling on the Transport file? Jim may well throw Keith under the bus.

Stittsville: In a fair race Glen Gower would be the winner. In spite of this (and lots more!) Shad Qadri’s reign may not be over.

Gower is currently sitting at only 35% in the polls but there’s lots of room for growth.

Barrhaven: Jan Harder and Lisa MacLeod rule with an iron fist so no change there.

Rideau-Vanier: Can’t see Mathieu Fleury losing. I can think of a lot of other community leaders who I’d vote for first, but they’re not running.

Cumberland: I don’t really know much about you people in Cumberland, but having Steven Blais as your all-but-uncontested leader makes me glad I don’t live there. But then maybe you feel the same about Bells Corners.
Rideau-Rockcliffe: Tobi Nussbaum is of the few incumbents who deserve re-election.

Somerset: Catherine McKenney and SuperSharrowMan. Move on folks, nothing to see here.

Beacon Hill-Cyrville: I feel sorry for the fine residents of BH-C. They don’t have a champion to get rid of Tim Tierney. Not the WORST incumbent but close to it.

Kitchissippi: Some think that Daniel Stringer might knock off the amazing Jeff Leiper. Not a chance!

River: Is Riley Brockington the worst councillor? No, but he’d garner quite a few votes. Sadly, he’s a shoo-in.

Capital: With Paul Dewar on the sidelines David Chernushenko is feeling the heat. Many think Shawn Menard is the frontrunner at this point. I wonder who Clive favours?

Gloucester-South Nepean: Michael Qaqish unopposed? That is SERIOUSLY wrong!

Osgoode: George Darouze is unlikely to win in Doug Thompson’s bailiwick, even if Goldie gets on board.

Need I explain?

Kanata South: We’ll have to suffer another four years with arguably Council’s WORST incumbent. Don’t get me started on why I’m NOT in the pedestrian/cyclist-hating Allan Hubley Fan Club.

Alta Vista: Good luck to Raylene Lang-Dion and Clinton Cowan, but the almost invisible Jean “Taxman” Cloutier may have it in the bag.

Rideau-Goulbourn: I can think of quite a few reasons why bobblehead Scott Moffatt doesn’t deserve another term. But the Kevin-Costner lookalike is sure to win so I’ll hold my tongue. Ask his former assistant David Brown.

Gloucester-Southgate: Even with Lilly Obina fighting hard under the Conservative banner it’ll be Diane Deans in a cakewalk.

West Carleton-March: Eli El-Chantiry re-elected? Call the cops!

Will the rank-and-file step in to save democracy?
Or will Doug and Donald and their enablers get the last laugh?
Is it time to send in the troops?